Benedict Evans Essays · Jul 9, 02:15 PM UTC
Ways to think about token pricing
Historical operation · Retained
“In theory, you can model this bottom-up. You can make some assumptions around each of the variables I suggested above, and then try to model out how many chips there are now, how many chips with what performance TSMC and the rest of the sem”
Quoted source · Benedict Evans · 2 source segments
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Model assessment
The transcript provides a detailed analysis of TSMC's current position as the sole frontier semiconductor manufacturer with a 'de facto monopoly' and 'nice margins', but it does not offer any material positive or negative catalyst, nor does it suggest a change in expected fundamentals. The discussion of TSMC is used as a historical analogy to explore potential outcomes for the AI industry, explicitly stating that 'analogies don't have predictive value'. The author repeatedly emphasizes uncertainty ('we don't know') and frames the future as having a wide range of possible outcomes. This evidence is non-actionable for a directional investment operation.
2 exact transcript citations