Benedict Evans Essays · Jul 9, 02:15 PM UTC
Ways to think about token pricing
Historical operation · Retained
“In theory, you can model this bottom-up. You can make some assumptions around each of the variables I suggested above, and then try to model out how many chips there are now, how many chips with what performance TSMC and the rest of the sem”
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Model assessment
The essay is a broad, forward-looking analysis of AI token pricing and industry structure. It discusses TSMC only as an example of a semiconductor monopoly that, despite high margins, captures limited value relative to the broader tech economy. The author explicitly states that analogies have no predictive value and that the future could unfold in many ways, with no specific catalyst or directional implication for TSMC's expected fundamentals. This is generic industry discussion with no actionable directional evidence.
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